Wednesday, October 21, 2009

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210730
SWODY3
SPC AC 210729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
LIKEWISE CONTINUE EWD INTO THE ERN U.S. WITH TIME. WHILE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

...SERN LA EWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE...
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BUT CONTINUED WEAK LAPSE RATES/MINIMAL
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW DUE TO THIS
THERMODYNAMIC DEFICIENCY. WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATION WITHIN ANY SUSTAINED STORM...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE -- WARRANTING
INCLUSION OF 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/21/2009

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