SWODY3
SPC AC 050722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT MON OCT 05 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA SHOULD
BEGIN EJECTING SLOWLY EWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WEAK LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INVOF ERN CO/WRN KS...WITH
LOW-LEVEL SLYS AND BROAD WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS AS A RESULT. THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT
PRIMARILY ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX AND VICINITY...
WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
SWD TO THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY...THE LINGERING WRN PORTION OF
THE FRONT OVER SWRN TX MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AN AFTERNOON
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A LACK OF APPRECIABLE
UPPER SUPPORT DUE TO SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD HINDER OVERALL STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ISENTROPIC ASCENT N OF THE FRONT AND
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTENANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED N OF THE SLOWLY RETREATING FRONT -- SUGGESTING THAT
ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WITH A FEW
SURFACE-BASED STORMS HOWEVER POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY THE I20 CORRIDOR
SWD...A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE NWD OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
RETREATING AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT ANY HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.
..GOSS.. 10/05/2009
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