SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050744
MTZ000-WYZ000-051245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 AM CDT MON OCT 05 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND SRN MT AND NRN WY
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 050744Z - 051245Z
HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR REMAINS LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM NRN WY INTO SRN AND WRN MT. RATES COULD
APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
EARLY THIS MORNING CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS NRN WY AND SRN
MT WITHIN AREA OF STRONG DIVERGENCE AND AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN JET
EXIT REGION THAT IS ROTATING NEWD THROUGH BASE OF UPPER LOW. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPANSIVE ZONE OF PRECIPITATION FROM WRN
THROUGH SRN MT INTO NRN WY IN VICINITY OF 700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS.
PRECIPITATION RATES IN THIS ZONE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS DEEPER
LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS NWD...BECOMING CO-LOCATED WITH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING. DEEP ENELY FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG EWD AND
NEWD FACING SLOPES. NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A WET SNOW...AND AS A RESULT COULD LOWER NET ACCUMULATION RATES.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE STRONG LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT...SNOWFALL RATES WILL AT TIMES LOCALLY EXCEED 1 INCH PER
HOUR...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
..DIAL.. 10/05/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...TFX...
LAT...LON 47831137 46850951 46370724 45820485 44330534 44550951
46841251 47831137
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