SWOD48
SPC AC 050901
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT MON OCT 05 2009
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SMALLER-SCALE DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AS EARLY AS DAY 5 /FRI. OCT. 9/...AS DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THE EJECTING SWRN U.S. TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. RESULT
IN A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SURFACE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES -- WHILE NOT NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT DAY 4 --
ARE STILL SUFFICIENT TO CAST SOME DOUBT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE SRN PLAINS THU. OCT. 8.
BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION THU AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY RETURN OF
A HIGH THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS TX AND INTO OK AND POSSIBLY SRN
KS. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT STILL WELL TO THE W...LARGE-SCALE
SUPPORT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING APPEARS TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LACKING. HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLY-STRONG SWLYS AT MID
LEVELS ATOP WHAT SHOULD BE A MOIST/DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON WARM
SECTOR...SCATTERED STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED --
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EWD AND THE TRAILING
FRONT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS OK/KS AND SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE.
ATTM HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF UPPER SUPPORT PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF A
THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 10/05/2009
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