SWODY3
SPC AC 080527
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2009
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...CAROLINAS INTO GA/AL...
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
QUITE WEAK AND WESTERLY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS. THIS WILL
LIMIT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY DO NOT CURRENTLY SUPPORT ADDING SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..HART.. 10/08/2009
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