SWODY2
SPC AC 080436
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CDT WED OCT 07 2009
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE ARKLATEX...
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST STATES ON THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER MS
AND TN VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND LIE FROM IL/IND INTO EAST TX BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING...SPREADING
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD FASTER THAN THE NAM...BUT ALL MODELS
INDICATE THAT VERTICAL WIND FIELDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROAD ZONE FROM THE
UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE ARKLATEX WHERE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND CAPE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW WHETHER ANY AREAS MIGHT SEE A
CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE REPORTS. GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
WEAKENING LAPSE RATES...LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT.
..HART.. 10/08/2009
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