SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080405
TXZ000-NMZ000-080530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT WED OCT 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX...SE NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 080405Z - 080530Z
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WEST TX
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE HAIL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.
TWO CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN SE NM AND WCNTRL TX
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER FAR WEST TX. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES NEWD TONIGHT...THE STORM CLUSTERS WILL SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS WEST TX. IN SPITE OF A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM LUBBOCK SHOWS A STOUT CAP WHICH
WILL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL BUT THE THERMODYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR HAIL. SHORT-TERM FORECASTS CONSOLIDATE THE TWO CLUSTERS
INTO ONE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEWD ACROSS THE LUBBOCK AND
AMARILLO CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES.
..BROYLES.. 10/08/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 30160184 30210240 30570254 31040262 31370269 31880281
32210308 32420342 32940376 33530370 34030332 34480275
34670235 34850165 34510112 34020101 33070089 32370086
31430109 30970132 30160184
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment