SWODY3
SPC AC 140655
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2009
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER
THE CONUS. CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LEAD PORTION OF A
DEEP EASTERN STATES TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/APPALACHIANS...WITH A REINFORCING JET STREAK/DEEPENING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL ASIDE FROM THE FL PENINSULA.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...
LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INFLUX WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING
ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT THIS LATITUDE...ALONG
WITH INHERENT UNKNOWNS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED EARLY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION. WHILE SCATTERED TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AMIDST A MOIST/POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY LOW
TO PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 10/14/2009
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