SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140634
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-140830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...SERN MS...EXTREME SWRN
AL...SMALL PORTION OF WRN PANHANDLE OF FL.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 140634Z - 140830Z
COMPLEX OF TSTMS IS FCST TO CONTINUE NET ESEWD MOTION 25-30 KT
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z...AS ADDITIONAL CELLS
FORM IN ADVANCE AND MERGE WITH MAIN MCS. BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT SVR CRITERIA -- AND CAPABLE OF DMG TO WEAK
STRUCTURES/VEGETATION -- ARE POSSIBLE. BRIEF/SMALL TORNADO OF
LEADING-EDGE/QLCS VARIETY OR EMBEDDED WITHIN BOOKEND MESOVORTEX ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN MRGL/CONDITIONAL NATURE OF SVR THREAT AND
SMALL LAND AREA AFFECTED...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
SFC DATA INDICATES MARINE/WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM NRN PEARL RIVER
COUNTY MS ESEWD ACROSS MOB AREA...THEN ACROSS SWRN TIP FL
PANHANDLE...AS OF 6Z. FRONT IS FCST TO DRIFT NWD AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. MEANWHILE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN FRONTAL ZONE AND BE ABSORBED BY
MCS. AS MAIN COMPLEX ENCOUNTERS RELATIVELY BACKED WINDS INVOF
FRONT...ENHANCED STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND VORTICITY MAY AID STORM
ORGANIZATION LOCALLY. IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS ALONG/S OF
FRONT...VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OFFSET WEAK
LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. WEAK LOW LEVEL
WINDS LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE OVER AREAS S OF FRONT...WHILE MLCAPE
DIMINISHES SUBSTANTIALLY NWD FROM AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG FRONT.
MODIFIED RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST...HOWEVER...THAT
NARROW ZONE OF 150-250 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH MAY BE AVAILABLE TO
SFC-BASED PARCELS IN FRONTAL ZONE...AMIDST 35-45 KT
EFFECTIVE/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
..EDWARDS.. 10/14/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30579052 30699009 31098955 31298916 31058769 30808712
30398651 30388683 30328726 30228802 30248870 30218925
30208976 30258995 30369009 30369023 30579052
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment