Thursday, November 5, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051246
SWODY1
SPC AC 051245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST THU NOV 05 2009

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
TODAY...WITH A COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. ONLY A FEW SMALL AREAS WILL SEE
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

...FL...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

...WESTERN WA...
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-26 TO -30C AT 500MB/ WILL SPREAD INLAND.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAY HELP TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES OF WESTERN WA LATER TONIGHT.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...YIELDING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LAKE-EFFECT
SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY OCCUR IN THE MOST INTENSE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AN ORGANIZED AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..HART/SMITH.. 11/05/2009

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