SWOD48
SPC AC 050933
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CST THU NOV 05 2009
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD APPEARS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. IT MAY BE THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW/TROUGH AND
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE LIFTING OUT MEXICAN PLATEAU...OR POSSIBLY THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. BUT...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PROBABILITIES FOR AN EVOLUTION
SUPPORTIVE OF A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE
SMALL. THERE ALSO REMAINS LITTLE INDICATION THAT A SUBSTANTIVE
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH STABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS GENERALLY LOW.
..KERR.. 11/05/2009
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