SWODY3
SPC AC 050719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CST THU NOV 05 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH DETACHED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LIKELY MIGRATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU BY EARLY SUNDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...A BROAD SUBTROPICAL CIRCULATION OR TROUGHING IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN GULF COAST/SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY TRACK NORTHWARD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE...WITHIN WEAK INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE U.S. WESTERN GULF COAST MAY ALSO BEGIN TO SLOWLY
ERODE/RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A SUBSTANTIVE
INLAND RETURN FLOW...EVEN INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO DESTABILIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLVING PATTERN...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED PRIMARILY IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF... WELL EAST AND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
..KERR.. 11/05/2009
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