SWODY2
SPC AC 050531
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CST WED NOV 04 2009
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LITTLE AMPLIFICATION WITHIN A STRONG
WESTERLY UPPER JET AS IT BEGINS TO MIGRATE INLAND FROM THE MID
LATITUDE PACIFIC DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE NOSE OF THIS
FEATURE PROPAGATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY... UPPER
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
STATES...AND THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH/CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE AWAY FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH...NOW SPLITTING OFF THIS
STRONGER BELT OF FLOW...ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ALSO APPEARS
LIKELY TO MIGRATE INLAND. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE
SPECIFIC TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A
WEAKER BELT OF WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. BUT...STRONGER FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE U.S./MEXICAN BORDER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...LINGERING SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE GULF
COAST INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND INLAND RETURN FLOW OFF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AS WELL AS THROUGH MUCH OF CALIFORNIA
AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY EARLY FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BENEATH A COLD MID-LEVEL AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING OCCASIONAL WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD... PARTICULARLY NEAR
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
..KERR.. 11/05/2009
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