SWOD48
SPC AC 020902
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CST MON NOV 02 2009
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
DEVELOPING PERTURBATIONS WITHIN...AND INTERACTION AMONG...BELTS OF
STRONGER WESTERLIES WITHIN AN EVOLVING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REMAIN A
SOURCE OF LARGE VARIABILITY AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES. THE LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
TOWARD INCREASED PHASING OF THE STREAMS AND A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
REGIME LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS SOLUTION COMES CLOSE TO
VERIFYING...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT LIKELY TO DESTABILIZE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND STRONG RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/EAST OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY TEND TO MINIMIZE SEVERE POTENTIAL... MUCH AS
WAS THE CASE LAST WEEK.
..KERR.. 11/02/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment