SWODY2
SPC AC 060553
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST SAT DEC 05 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD ARE
INTENSIFYING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL PROGRESS SEWD FROM OFF THE CA COAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM. FARTHER E...EWD PROGRESSION OF RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO MS VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR THE
NWD/NWWD RETREAT OF A MARINE OR WARM FRONT THROUGH THE SHELF WATERS
OF THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
...UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA...
TSTMS /MAINLY ELEVATED/ ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
NIGHT FROM ERN TX INTO MUCH OF LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS...TO THE N OF
RETREATING MARINE FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONCURRENTLY
INTENSIFY...OWING LARGELY TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40+ KT LLJ.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EFFECTIVE PARCELS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW...NEAR-SURFACE
INVERSION. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY. HERE...A LOW POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO.
..MEAD.. 12/06/2009
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