SWODY2
SPC AC 150648
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2010
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS OUTLIER SOLUTION...THE OPERATIONAL
NAM...NAM-KF AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN HANDLING LARGE SRN STREAM
UPPER LOW THIS PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER JET DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE
BAJA REGION ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER NRN
MEXICO WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH MEXICO FRIDAY BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE
NWRN GULF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
THEN EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND INTO THE SERN STATES
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE N-CNTRL GULF EARLY SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING UPPER
JET WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NWD THROUGH AL OVERNIGHT. BY THE END OF
THIS PERIOD THE WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM COASTAL SC SWWD
THROUGH SRN GA AND SERN AL WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND SWWD THROUGH THE WRN FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE NERN
GULF.
...FL THROUGH SRN GA AND ERN SC...
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC
AND DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN ELY LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES DURING THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE SERN STATES. AN
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS FL WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SSELY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS
AND LIFTS NWD INTO AL. THE ELY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL RESULT
IN TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM CP AIR AND SHOULD LIMIT OR DELAY
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF FL UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS MAY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF S FL...DIABATIC
WARMING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY. THESE FACTORS
ALONG WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
500 J/KG. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS GA AND SERN SC...THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY
SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY
LIMITED.
PRE-FRONTAL ZONE OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVER THE CNTRL GULF EARLY SATURDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
ENEWD DURING THE DAY REACHING THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND SRN GA AND THE FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. DEEP VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT...FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. GIVEN EXPECTED 60+ KT LOW LEVEL
JET...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS
PROGRESS EWD THROUGH FL AND SRN GA OVERNIGHT. LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL
ALSO SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
PRESENT CONCERN IS THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...AND IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THEN AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 01/15/2010
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