SWODY3
SPC AC 150830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPPER JET WILL
EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. INITIAL
OCCLUDED LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NNEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS...WHILE SECONDARY CYCLONE DEEPENS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SUNDAY EVENING. TRAILING
PORTIONS OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING
THE DAY...REACHING THE SRN TIP OF THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
...ERN CAROLINAS...
LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS MAY ADVECT INLAND SOUTH OF WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
VERY MARGINAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP
ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SHALLOW PRE-FRONTAL LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY.
ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH LARGE
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR PARTIAL CLEARING WILL EXIST IN DRY-SLOT REGION IN WAKE OF
PRE-FRONTAL STORMS AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...TENDENCY WILL
BE FOR LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER IN WAKE OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND AS
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING AND...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES...MAINTAIN VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT SHOULD HAVE LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL.
...FL...
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
PENINSULA EARLY SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDED WITHIN STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. SOME THREAT WILL
EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT CONCERN IS THAT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE EVENT GIVEN LIMITED DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. THE STRONGER
DEEP FORCING AND PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF
THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...SUGGESTING OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LOW AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO SOUTH FL WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST.
..DIAL.. 01/15/2010
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