Friday, January 15, 2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151735
SWODY2
SPC AC 151734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO A NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATING/BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH
CORRESPONDING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF MS/AL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN VICINITY OF A GULF SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST/FL
PENINSULA. A RAIN-COOLED INLAND AIRMASS NORTH OF AN ENCROACHING WARM
FRONT...AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES /EXCEPT FL PENINSULA/
VIA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES...SHOULD
SERVE TO LIMIT APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OR LESS.

AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES AND THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY/MOISTEN INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE TSTMS MAY
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST
STATES/FL PENINSULA. DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR TO 50+ KT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL VIA A APPROACHING SQUALL LINE AND/OR
LEADING SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT. PENDING SUBSEQUENT GUIDANCE AND
EXPECTATIONS FOR SOMEWHAT GREATER WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION...A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK MAY ULTIMATELY BE WARRANTED FOR THE
NORTHEAST GULF REGION/FL PENINSULA VICINITY.

..GUYER.. 01/15/2010

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