SWODY3
SPC AC 110728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CST MON JAN 11 2010
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS REGIME IS PROGGED TO DIG FROM THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
U.S./MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A
WEAKER DOWNSTREAM TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.
THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND A RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. COLD SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
RETREAT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AS WELL.
BUT...BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE
WAKE OF RECENT STRONG COLD INTRUSIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND MUCH OF THE U.S.
FOR THAT MATTER...IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE.
..KERR.. 01/11/2010
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