SWOD48
SPC AC 110936
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CST MON JAN 11 2010
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER JET WILL NOSE
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...LIKELY EXTENDING IN BROADLY
ANTICYCLONIC BELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST-EAST LENGTH OF THE PACIFIC
BY NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
EMERGING FROM THIS REGIME WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF A PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AS A
RESULT...THE AMPLIFIED PERTURBATION EVOLVING OVER THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY MID WEEK APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY LINGERS CONCERNING
THE MANNER IN WHICH THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AND THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF AN ASSOCIATED
DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE. ENOUGH INDICATIONS ARE PRESENT TO
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST... INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...PERHAPS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
COAST...THIS COMING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT...BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTIVE OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL THREAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH SUBSTANTIVE MOISTENING
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NOT LIKELY TO COMMENCE
UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.../POTENTIAL TOO LOW/ CATEGORIZATION FOR THE
RISK OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS BEING MAINTAINED.
..KERR.. 01/11/2010
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