SWODY1
SPC AC 040550
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST WED FEB 03 2010
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A PAIR OF DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHS /ONE NOW BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN...ANOTHER CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND MEXICAN PLATEAU/ ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AND
GRADUALLY MERGE...FORMING A LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY. AND
SURFACE RIDGING BENEATH CONVERGING BELTS OF WESTERLIES OVER THE
NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE SLOW TO LOSE INFLUENCE...AS FAR
SOUTH AS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
...EASTERN GULF COAST...
DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE...LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BENEATH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OF
COASTAL AREAS EVEN APPEARS SMALL...DUE TO THE WEAK CAPE/WARM
EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES PROGGED FOR MOISTENING PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
A LINGERING NEAR SURFACE BASED INVERSION LAYER.
...S CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX...
ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN A LINGERING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...AS COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS
POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE LOW-LEVEL
COOLING/DRYING COMMENCES WITH VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY.
...CALIFORNIA...
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW WITH AN INLAND ADVANCING
CONVECTIVE FRONTAL BAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER
...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT AN AREA OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WILL SPREAD
INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. THIS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME ALONG COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF FORT
BRAGG...MAINLY DURING THE 05/03-06Z TIME FRAME.
..KERR.. 02/04/2010
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