SWODY2
SPC AC 040552
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST WED FEB 03 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROMINENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY FEATURING A POLAR
VORTEX SPINNING OVER SERN CANADA AND ACTIVE...MULTI-STREAM FLOWS
ACROSS THE LWR-48. A SRN STREAM UPR IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH NWRN MEXICO WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE TODAY AND BEGIN TO PHASE
WITH A NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES. COMPOSITE
UPR TROUGH WILL THEN PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z
SATURDAY. TO THE W...AN ERN PACIFIC WAVE NEARING 135W AT
05Z/04...WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE CA/ORE COASTS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
IN THE LOWER-LEVELS...A WEAK LOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AT
12Z FRIDAY WILL DEVELOP NWD TOWARD THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. TRAILING THE SECOND LOW...A CDFNT WILL
SWEEP SEWD ACROSS FL DURING FRIDAY NIGHT.
...FL...
STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPR TROUGH WILL
TRANSPORT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NEWD INTO THE ERN GULF BASIN BY
EARLY FRIDAY. A BAND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WITHIN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS AT 12Z FRIDAY AND THE NORTHERN-MOST END OF STORMS
MAY BE GRAZING PARTS OF THE NERN GULF COAST AT THAT TIME.
THEREAFTER...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS PENINSULAR FL WILL
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE FRIDAY AFTN. BUT...TRAJECTORIES WILL
INITIALLY BE RECYCLING ONLY MODIFIED CARIBBEAN/ATLANTIC MOISTURE NWD
THROUGH THE PENINSULA BENEATH RATHER WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINED WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW CAUSED BY
CYCLOGENESIS WELL NORTHEAST OF FL SHOULD BE HOSTILE AT SUSTAINING A
LINE OF STRONG TSTMS ALONG THE SEWD MOVING CDFNT. MORE ROBUST
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FCST WILL INCLUDE A 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF TSTMS ACROSS FL...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPORADIC WITH SVR TSTM PROBABILITIES LOW.
...CA COAST...
AS THE NEXT UPR-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY...A
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS CNTRL/SRN CA INVOF
A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. INITIALLY...FCST THERMODYNAMIC SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS THAT ONLY ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY EMBEDDED STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF TSTMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG/N OF A 70-80 KT WLY 500 MB JET MAX AS MID-MINUS 20 DEG C
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREAD ALONG THE COAST IN THE MOIST
POST-FRONTAL REGIME. MOST LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATER...BUT
ISOLD STORMS COULD AFFECT COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM THE MENDOCINO COAST
SWD TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS.
..RACY.. 02/04/2010
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