SWODY1
SPC AC 070539
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE TO THE LEE
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA... THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS...AND ANOTHER SPLITTING TROUGH APPROACHES THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT LEAST PARTIALLY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THESE DEVELOPMENTS...THE LARGE TROUGH WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AND
THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT GENERAL
STRENGTH...AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z
MONDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SHEARED AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT REGIME. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT IT WILL
INDUCE WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. WHILE THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
40-50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA...MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND MUCH OF THE NATION...SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW...WITH NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
...SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
COOLING ALOFT PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70+
KT 500 MB JET...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY MIDDAY...INTO CENTRAL MEXICO BY LATE AFTERNOON.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE ROCKIES IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
...BUT A GENERALLY EAST-WEST ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...NEAR THE RED RIVER
TOWARD 12Z MONDAY...APPEARS TO PROVIDE THE MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR
DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
..KERR.. 02/07/2010
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