SWODY2
SPC AC 070700
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE TO SOME DEGREE WITH A SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING
THE S CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH AN INTENSIFYING BAROCLINIC
ZONE TO SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND EWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX...
PRIMARILY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS TX
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION.
DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR...MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE HAIL
POTENTIAL.
WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...DUE TO
INCOMPLETE MODIFICATION OF RETURNING GULF AIR IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR
FRONTAL INTRUSION. THEREFORE...EXPECT WHAT LITTLE DESTABILIZATION
CAN OCCUR TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AN ELEVATED LAYER. EVEN IF A
NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORM OR TWO CAN EVOLVE...WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD
LIMIT ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL -- AND THUS WIND THREAT ALSO APPEARS
LIMITED TO NONEXISTENT.
MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETER SUPPORTIVE OF A LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD EXHIBITING
VEERING/STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND E TX DURING THE
DAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SOME LIMITED THREAT FOR A NEAR
SURFACE-BASED STORM SUGGESTS A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
INTRODUCTION OF EVEN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 02/07/2010
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