SWODY1
SPC AC 270520
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2010
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN U.S...
STRONG UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE NRN BAJA DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW UPPER LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP SWD WITHIN BROADER
TROUGH BEFORE MOVING INLAND ACROSS SRN CA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD. PROFILES WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY AS TROUGH MOVES INLAND
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES...MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SRN CA COAST WHERE
BUOYANCY WILL BE ENHANCED BY WARMER MARINE LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR SAN SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES COULD APPROACH 500 J/KG BY
MID AFTERNOON AS FLOW VEERS INTO THE SW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THE MOST ROBUST
UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. WITH TIME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...PRIMARILY AFTER
28/00Z.
...SOUTH FL...
LOWER MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO AS STRONGEST JET CORE...H5 AOA
100KT...RACES TOWARD SOUTH FL. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC WAVE WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FL BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT
THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE FL
STRAITS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
..DARROW.. 02/27/2010
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