SWODY1
SPC AC 120057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PREDOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR REMAINDER PERIOD WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE/SRN-STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN RAOB/VWP DATA AND
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM WRN OK SWWD ACROSS W TX TO COAHUILA.
STRONGEST EMBEDDED VORTICITY LOBE -- INITIALLY INVOF DRT -- IS FCST
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS MIDDLE-UPPER TX COAST AND SWRN LA THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALREADY
UNDERWAY OVER NWRN GULF...OFFSHORE CRP. BY 12Z...EXPECT
WELL-DEFINED SFC CYCLONE OVER NWRN GULF...MOVING EWD INVOF
27N90W...COLD FRONT SWWD FROM LOW TO BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND WARM
FRONT ESEWD TOWARD FL KEYS/STRAITS.
ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER PORTIONS SE TX OR
SWRN LA WHERE NWRN FRINGE OF ELEVATED/WAA CONVEYOR JUXTAPOSES WITH
LEADING PORTION OF STRONGEST MIDLEVEL DPVA/ASCENT/COOLING
IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH....AS THIS REGIME TRANSLATES
EWD. HOWEVER...OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE
WILL BE LESS THAN 250 J/KG AND LOCATED BELOW OPTIMAL ICING LAYERS
FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...E.G. AS IN 00Z CRP RAOB. THUNDER
POTENTIAL INLAND IS NONZERO BUT APPEARS TOO SCANT FOR PROBABILITIES
SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER GULF...OFFSHORE FROM LOWER-MIDDLE TX
COAST...AND MOVE EWD -- REMAINING OVER WATER.
..EDWARDS.. 02/12/2010
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