SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120056
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-120530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX/NORTHERN LA
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 120056Z - 120530Z
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE/DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST TX/NORTHERN LA THIS EVENING...LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR. EMBEDDED SNOW RATES OF 1+ IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS DURATION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS A PROGRESSIVE/SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHILE WEAK/GRADUAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED/EASTWARD
SHIFTING DEEP LAYER OMEGA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...00Z SHREVEPORT/FORT
WORTH OBSERVED RAOBS AND SUPPLEMENTAL RUC SOUNDINGS REFLECT A
THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW VIA A
50-75 MB DEEP/MID LEVEL SATURATED DENDRTIIC LAYER ATOP A NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL SUB-FREEZING LOWEST 1-3 KM. EVEN WHERE NEAR-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND/JUST ABOVE FREEZING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN LA EARLY THIS EVENING/...INCREASING/SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION
RATES WILL FAVOR A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW. IN ALL...SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TX/NORTHERN LA...WITH EMBEDDED 1+ IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITHIN A GENERAL 30-50 MILE VICINITY EITHER SIDE OF I-20.
..GUYER.. 02/12/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 33249627 32999493 32799271 32679135 31999121 31749137
31509362 32089641 33249627
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