SWODY2
SPC AC 070659
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST SUN MAR 07 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT/PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MAJORITY OF NORTH AMERICA ON MONDAY. CLOSED UPPER TROUGH NOW NEARING
THE SOUTHERN CA/BAJA COAST IS EXPECTED TO BE KICKED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER
THE WEST COAST.
...MUCH OF CENTRAL TX TO WESTERN OK AND TX/OK PANHANDLES...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH A
MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF TX. WARM ADVECTION IN TANDEM WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT
FALLS/COOLING ALOFT WILL LIKELY INDUCE ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY
IN THE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHWEST KS AND ADJACENT
WESTERN OK.
BY AFTERNOON...AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SURGING DRY SLOT MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT. WHILE A BIT REMOVED FROM THE GREATER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN THE MIDST OF AROUND 60 F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...THE RELATIVELY GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE
DESTABILIZATION/SURFACE BASED TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. HERE...WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS.
FARTHER NORTH...A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE RISK COULD
DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND WESTERN OK/PERHAPS EVEN SOUTHWEST KS. WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR...SURFACE MOISTURE/TOTAL BUOYANCY WILL BE LACKING...BUT A
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT/AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY COULD YIELD
A RISK FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS.
..GUYER.. 03/07/2010
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