SWODY3
SPC AC 070830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST SUN MAR 07 2010
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ON
TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BECOME INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES ALOFT...WHILE A SECONDARY SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH QUICKLY ADVANCES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CA/NV
TO NM/PERHAPS FAR WEST TX BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
...ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
EAST-WEST SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONGST 00Z ECMWF/NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE...BUT WARM/MOIST SECTOR SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STALLING
COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE
REGION. NONETHELESS...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT
AND LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE/A MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD FAVOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TSTM REGENERATION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BENEATH 45-50 KT OF MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MODEST HEATING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AROUND 60F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY YIELD A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH A SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
..GUYER.. 03/07/2010
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