SWODY2
SPC AC 230512
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 AM CDT TUE MAR 23 2010
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING BETWEEN A NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES AND UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
OVER THE WRN U.S. TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND LIFT NEWD ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH NRN TX AND ERN OK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TRAILING
PORTIONS OF COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL TX.
...TX...
RECENT INTRUSION OF CP AIR OVER THE GULF WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
MODIFICATION OF THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER WEDNESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S EXPECTED TO ADVECT NWWD THROUGH CNTRL/WRN TX AND LOW-MID 60S
LIKELY ACROSS S TX. INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE MAY RESULT IN FORMATION
OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS. INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIKELY ADVECT AN EML ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS CONTRIBUTING
TO DESTABILIZATION AS WELL AS A CAP. THE CAP WILL BE STRONGER FROM
S-CNTRL THROUGH S TX. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG.
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM CNTRL THROUGH N-CNTRL AND NE TX INTO OK DURING THE DAY.
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER FORCING AS
THE FRONT SURGES SEWD AND INTERCEPTS THE MOIST AXIS. THE LINE OF
STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHING 40-50 KT SWLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME DUE TO AN EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BE
NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..DIAL.. 03/23/2010
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