Tuesday, March 23, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230513
SWODY1
SPC AC 230512

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 AM CDT TUE MAR 23 2010

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF NRN BAJA AT 28N/
121W PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY ACROSS FAR NRN
MEXICO/VICINITY INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT
PHASES WITH A LARGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING SEWD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS/CENTRAL-SRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LIFTING NEWD OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.

BAROCLINIC ZONE ATTENDANT TO THE LARGER WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM
NERN NM SWWD TO SRN AZ BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. DESPITE WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION/ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS/JEWELL.. 03/23/2010

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