SWODY3
SPC AC 230708
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT TUE MAR 23 2010
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND SERN STATES...BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING THURSDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN OR SRN OH VALLEY...WHILE
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SERN STATES. BY THE END OF
THIS PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.
...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...
SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES. GIVEN
EXPECTED MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MARGINAL. THE CONVECTION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY BE INITIALLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE
SRN END OF THE MCS MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY OCCUR
IN WAKE OF INITIAL STORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WRN
PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODEST
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHER
STORMS COULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TENDENCY FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO VEER WITH TIME
WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE...BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY BULK SHEAR WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN A POTENTIALLY
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
MIGHT NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY IN VICINITY OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NRN GULF IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
OFFSHORE. THE MODEST SEVERE RISK WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN FL
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
..DIAL.. 03/23/2010
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