SWOD48
SPC AC 230810
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 AM CDT TUE MAR 23 2010
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4 /FRIDAY/...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES AND
NRN FL...WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA. RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE PENINSULA...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED
BY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS FL FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES...BUT BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST DURING
THE DAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE QUALITY OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND TENDENCY FOR THE TROUGH TO
DEAMPLIFY...A HIGHER END CATEGORICAL RISK AREA WILL NOT BE
INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
DAY 5-7/SATURDAY - MONDAY/...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS DAY 5 THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE SERN
STATES DAY 6 BEFORE REACHING FL DAY 7. IT APPEARS THE WAVELENGTH
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND PREVIOUS UPPER TROUGH MIGHT BE TOO SMALL TO
ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE
SERN U.S. FOR A HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT. AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
ACROSS FL WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE GREATER BY DAY 7/MONDAY/.
..DIAL.. 03/23/2010
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