SWODY1
SPC AC 110448
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2010
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE U.S. IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY THIS
PERIOD...AS A LARGE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE W
COAST STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE INCREASINGLY-CYCLONIC FLOW EXPANDS ACROSS THE
EAST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST...WITH A
LARGE/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST. IN BETWEEN...SLYS
AT LOW LEVELS WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
...KS/WRN OK/WRN AND CENTRAL TX...
WHILE LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL ALLOW NWD ADVECTION OF MODEST
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME EWD
ADVECTION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS
WILL ALLOW CAPPING TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM...IT APPEARS
THAT WITH ONLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...CAPPING WILL HINDER STORM
INITIATION...WITH DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST IN
MOST PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP...RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
SUGGESTS PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE. HOWEVER...GIVEN STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MAY SUPPORT
EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS.
WHILE MODELS SEEM TO BE HINTING THAT SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX...WILL REFRAIN FROM
INTRODUCING SLIGHT RISK/15% ATTM. HOWEVER...UPGRADE MAY BECOME
NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS AREA INCREASES.
..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 04/11/2010
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