SWODY2
SPC AC 110522
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT SUN APR 11 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN PLAINS...
GFS CONTINUES EARLIER TRENDS OF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM
WITH EJECTING SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES
LATE IN THE PERIOD. EVEN A SLOWER NAM SOLUTION RESULTS IN A
SUBSTANTIAL NWD SHIFT TO A MODIFYING WARM SECTOR AS SFC WARM FRONT
RETREATS TO NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HEIGHT FALLS DON'T REALLY APPROACH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH 50S DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EPISODIC ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BECOME QUITE ROBUST AS
MODEST VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE RECOVERING AIRMASS AND BROAD RIDGING THAT
STUBBORNLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL MAINTAIN 5%
PROBABILITIES FOR WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION...MUCH OF WHICH SHOULD BE
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE LIKELY ELEVATED NATURE HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. EVEN SO SHEAR PROFILES COULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES IF UPDRAFTS CAN ROOT NEAR THE WIND SHIFT.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR NEAR-WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS
SWRN SD WHERE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...ALONG WITH BLACK HILLS
TOPOGRAPHY COULD VERY WELL INITIATE SFC BASED ACTIVITY. THIS REGION
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND FAR WEST TX...STRONG
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITHIN WEAK UPSLOPE
REGIME AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE HENCE WEAK VEERING
PROFILES WILL EXIST DURING THE COURSE OF GREATEST INSTABILITY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR WEAK/SLOW MOVING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL DURING THE MATURE
PHASES OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
..DARROW.. 04/11/2010
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