SWODY3
SPC AC 110708
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT SUN APR 11 2010
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF EJECTING
LEAD SPEED MAX DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING SOME LARGE SCALE TIMING/DISPLACEMENT
ISSUES...OVERALL IDEA OF STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE NRN
ROCKIES IS CONSISTENT. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS
THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS LEAD TROUGH EJECTS IN A NEGATIVE
TILTED FASHION INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE. RESULTANT LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE MERIDIONAL
DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE STRONG...BUT THERMODYNAMICALLY NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE. GIVEN THE QUASI-PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME OVER THE GULF STATES BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED AND NARROW IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH/FRONTAL
SURGE. EVEN SO...DEW POINTS IN THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS
SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ROBUST CONVECTION FROM NERN
NM/ERN CO...NWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE MEAGER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% PROBS ACROSS THIS
REGION...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT FAST
NNEWD-MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG WINDS.
..DARROW.. 04/11/2010
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