SWODY1
SPC AC 141942
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT WED APR 14 2010
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
PREV FCST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF SVR HAIL/WINDS
ACROSS A BROAD SECTION OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NM
CNTRL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS AND ACROSS SW TX WHERE RELATIVELY MOIST
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW BOOSTS OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FCST STORM
MOTION WILL BE SLOW/ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AS COLD POOLS
MATURE...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ON THE ADJACENT LOWER PLAINS OF
ECNTRL/NERN NM AND THE TRANSPECOS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
.RACY.. 04/14/2010
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT WED APR 14 2010/
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AS THE SFC/UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF MT INTO MANITOBA BY TONIGHT...THE
SRN PORTION OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
NEB INTO NERN NM. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT ERN U.S.
WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SELY/SLY FLOW THRU THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN THE
MOIST PLUME FROM WRN TX/ERN NM AND NEWD VICINITY STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.
SHEAR WEAKENS ACROSS THE PLAINS HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7-8C/KM WILL BE COMMON SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE CLEARING WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING
TO TAKE PLACE. WITH A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ERN NM PLAINS AND MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING ON TO THE NE...THIS IS AN AREA WHERE MORE
VIGOROUS STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH LESS THAN 30KT OF SHEAR AND
MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS...POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS.
ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE STRONGLY DIURNAL ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.
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