Wednesday, April 14, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0315

ACUS11 KWNS 142148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142148
NEZ000-KSZ000-142315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT WED APR 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 142148Z - 142315Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THE COMBINATION OF A STEEP LAPSE RATES...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...SURFACE FRONT...AND NEWD TRANSLATION OF A MIDLEVEL
PERTURBATION OUT OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM N
OF EHA TO NEAR HSI. RUC PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR
CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELD MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
RATHER DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

THE CONTINUED NEWD MOVEMENT TO MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF TSTMS INTO
THIS EVENING. SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER ABOUT 02-03Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO COOL AND THE CAP INCREASES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN CONJUNCTION WITH DCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG AND
RELATIVELY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

.MEAD.. 04/14/2010

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 37660120 38250153 39400053 40509928 41059845 41149780
40589763 39759843 38100060 37660120

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