SWODY1
SPC AC 171921
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2010
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GENERAL TSTM LINES IN SW AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TREND IN RADAR IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
..PETERS.. 04/17/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NRN STREAM MIDLEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED/TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GA AND THE NRN GULF COAST STATES. FARTHER W...A
SLOW-MOVING MIDLEVEL LOW AND WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER N TX. A PW PLUME NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH
WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FEED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND S TX...WHILE MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SWD-MOVING FRONT FARTHER E INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT INTO N GA AND SC...BUT POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LOW/WARM EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF CHARGE
SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.
A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND EWD TO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE ONGOING STORMS
OVER FAR W TX ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BELT OF ASCENT /E OF THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH/ INTERACTING WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
IN THE WAKE OF THE N TX LOW. OTHER SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NM NWD ACROSS
CO/WY/MT WHERE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY.
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