SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171838
TXZ000-172145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S TX.
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 171838Z - 172145Z
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER OUTLINED PARTS OF S TX -- PRIMARILY NEAR
BOUNDARIES AS DETAILED BELOW -- IS FCST TO BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED
DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR COMMON IN
HEAVIEST CORES AND ISOLATED/SHORT-LIVED RATES IN 2-3 INCHES/HOUR
RANGE POSSIBLE.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EACH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC HEATING OF MOISTURE-RICH INFLOW LAYER. SLOW
TSTM MOVEMENT AND LIKELIHOOD OF CELL MERGERS WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL LOCALLY. SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS KENEDY/KLEBERG COUNTIES NEWD
ACROSS REFUGIO COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL INLAND DRIFT LIKELY NEXT 2-3
HOURS. NEAR CRP...SEA BREEZE INTERSECTS SFC CONFLUENCE LINE THAT
EXTENDS NWWD ROUGHLY ALONG OR JUST W OF I-37 INTO ATASCOSA
COUNTY...WHERE ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT SWWD THROUGH COT-LRD
AREAS. INLAND BOUNDARIES...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER MESOSCALE REGIME
OF DEEP ASCENT LOCATED SSE OF UPPER LOW OVER NW TX...ARE
QUASISTATIONARY ATTM BUT MAY BE SHIFTED BY OUTFLOWS AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. TSTMS ALREADY ARE DEVELOPING BETWEEN
INLAND BOUNDARIES OVER ATASCOSA/LASALLE/MCMULLEN COUNTIES...AND
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THAT AREA AND EWD INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONT IN
ENVIRONMENT OF NEGLIGIBLE MLCINH. SFC HEATING ALREADY HAS OFFSET
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ENOUGH TO BOOST MLCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG.
GPS DATA...MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
1.25-1.5 INCH PW WITH HIGH RH THROUGH LOWEST 200-300 MB
AGL...AVAILABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION IN DEEPENING
CONVECTION.
..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 27349789 27619802 27869840 27769921 28259919 29269865
29219838 28719811 28579768 28999723 29249680 29189656
28779645 28419681 28229737 27799766 27449773 27349789
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