MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1112

ACUS11 KWNS 241834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241834
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WV...MD...SRN/ERN KY...DC...VA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404...405...406...

VALID 241834Z - 242030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
404...405...406...CONTINUES.

EXISTING WWS S OF PA MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
BAND...AS IT IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM COLDEST AIR ALOFT THAT
SIGNIFICANT POST-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS IMPROBABLE. ADDITIONAL
WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADJOINING PORTIONS SRN MD/SRN VA/SERN WV/KY.

18Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WITH GRADUAL/VEERING
WIND SHIFT FROM SWRN PA...S OF LBE...WSWWD TO NEAR PKB-FTK
LINE...AND JUST BEHIND PRIMARY BAND OF TSTMS MOVING SEWD 25-35 KT
ACROSS WW AREA. THIS CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
KY...WHERE SVR POTENTIAL DOES EXIST BUT IN MORE DISORGANIZED MANNER
UNDER WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. CU/TCU FIELD -- EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY
ACROSS MUCH OF PIEDMONT REGION -- PROVIDES EVIDENCE FOR
MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AHEAD OF MAIN TSTM LINE.

THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT FROM CENTRAL MD WSWWD
ACROSS ERN KY WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BUT ALSO WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WIND/SHEAR PROFILES WITH SWD EXTENT.
ALSO...GIVEN MORE PARALLEL COMPONENT OF MEAN WIND VECTOR THAN
FARTHER NE...EXPECT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE TO REMAIN
DOMINANT...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED HAIL
POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING
GUSTS...GIVEN AMBIENT/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS AND
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMICS. INCREASINGLY WELL-MIXED
SUBCLOUD LAYER EXISTS ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS E OF MOUNTAINS...WHERE
SFC TEMPS UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S F WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
COMMON...SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE/ACCELERATION OF STG-SVR CONVECTIVE
GUSTS GENERATED ALOFT.

..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...
LMK...

LAT...LON 37388615 37698483 38358257 38728104 39137985 39627705
38447552 38017562 37087860 36648335 36848598 37388615

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