Thursday, June 24, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1113

ACUS11 KWNS 241836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241836
MNZ000-NDZ000-242000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND INTO NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241836Z - 242000Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM N CNTRL ND INTO NW
MN. SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
STRONGEST STORMS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWED INCREASING CU FIELD FROM NEAR KBJI TO KFAR TO
KMIB. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS SRN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL ND AND MOVING
SWD. AT THE ERN END OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED AS OF 18Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY STILL
ELEVATED BUT STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED WITH TIME AS
THEY TRACK SEWD INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH CURRENT MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD
INCREASE SOMEWHAT WITH CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KMIB IN ND
SEWD TO NEAR KPKD IN MN. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT AND
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 06/24/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48550136 48280159 47890143 47560057 47259954 46999825
46839682 46939592 47119519 47509464 48079463 48649494
48999560 48819889 48650082 48550136

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