SWODY1
SPC AC 051939
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2010
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
THE ONLY CHANGE FOR THE 20Z OUTLOOK IS TO ADD PARTS OF SRN AND CNTRL
MN...SE SD AND NE NEB INTO THE 5 PERCENT WIND PROBABILITY. POCKETS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
NEAR SIOUX FALLS AND MINNEAPOLIS. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS MAY BE ENOUGH F0R
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 07/05/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2010/
WHILE THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR REMAINS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WELL DEPICTED ON THE W/V
IMAGERY...CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE COMBINATION OF WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES
MUCH OF CONUS WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR STORMS IS
AVAILABLE AND OVERALL LACK OF FAVORABLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE LIMITING ANY THREAT TO A FEW
LOCALIZED AREAS.
...WI/MI...
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROB OF SEVERE THIS AREA AS THE REMNANT MCV
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SWRN WI WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
FOR THE RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WITH NEAR
MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED CAPE...DO NOT EXPECT A
SUFFICIENT THREAT FOR A SLIGHT RISK.
...ND/MN...
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED THIS AREA THE COMBINATION OF COOLING
ALOFT AND INCREASING MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING VICINITY WEAK
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS ERN ND BY MID
AFTERNOON...THE TIME FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
...TX PNHDL/NWRN OK/SRN KS...
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ADVECTED EASTWARD FROM SRN ROCKIES
INTO SRN HI PLAINS. WITH SOME CLEARING ALREADY OCCURRING IN WRN
OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT MULTI-CELL STORM DEVELOPMENT
BY MID AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SWWD
FROM SCENTRAL KS TO ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR
ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORM INITIATION. WHILE SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL
BE WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON...STILL 30 KT WILL BE AVAILABLE.
WILL MAINTAIN JUST MARGINAL PROBS OF SEVERE GIVEN THE LIMITED SHEAR
AND QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES FURTHER E THAN TX PANHANDLE. HAVE ALSO
MAINTAINED A LOW THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES INTO PARTS OF ERN KS
WHERE A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR IS AVAILABLE WITH THE MCV CURRENTLY
LOCATED SCENTRAL KS.
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