SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051951
MNZ000-NDZ000-052045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND...NWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 051951Z - 052045Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER NRN
ND...AND MAY SPREAD E-NEWD INTO NWRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THREAT
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXISTS...BUT A WW
DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS APPROACHING THE NRN
PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT BISECTING ND. MID
50S F DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 80 F AHEAD OF IT...TO NEAR 70 F IN
ITS WAKE. LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING BENEATH RATHER COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -12 TO -18 DEG C AT 500 MB/ IS
CONTRIBUTING TOWARD MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG. DESPITE THE RATHER
WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN ND. IN
ADDITION...AREA VWP DATA INDICATES STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT /AOA 40 KT
AT 6KM/ SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THESE SHEAR
PROFILES...COMBINED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STRONGER
UPDRAFT CORES MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..GARNER.. 07/05/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 49409725 48939597 47859587 47149707 46780326 48770293
49409725
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