SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051955
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-052130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND TX PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHERN
KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 051955Z - 052130Z
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO...WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHERN KS. CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD
PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BECOME
A CONCERN BY THIS EVENING.
AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN KS AT MID
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
PROBABLE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED
AIRMASS. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST OK...EASTWARD ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER...AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ALONG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SOME
SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH SOME
SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A BRIEF TORNADO
RISK APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPMENT PARALLELING A SLOW SOUTHWARD
SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE OK-KS BORDER VICINITY...SUCH AS
THE STORM CURRENTLY IN WOODS COUNTY OK AS OF 1950Z.
..GUYER.. 07/05/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 37349915 37539758 36079809 34520026 34540151 35610072
37349915
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