SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061856
OKZ000-TXZ000-062030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 061856Z - 062030Z
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR...APPEARS
LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK.
WHILE A SURFACE COLD POOL HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE/BACKBUILD ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THESE EARLY DAY STORMS/COLD POOL ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO/BUT ABOUT 15-35 MILES NW OF I-44
AS OF 1845Z. FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT/CONFLUENCE AXIS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OK INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL TX ALONG I-35...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY MEAN FLOW /7 KT OR LESS/
SUGGESTIVE OF SLOW MOVING/REPETITIVE RAINFALL WITHIN A RELATIVELY
NARROW CORRIDOR. A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES PER THE 12Z NORMAN
OBSERVED RAOB/GPS DERIVED PW DATA...WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCIES WITH RAINFALL RATES 1-1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED
BASIS.
..GUYER.. 07/06/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 36649680 36839463 36009592 34249643 33769720 34699704
35959662 36649680
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