MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1217

ACUS11 KWNS 061906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061906
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-062030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...WRN NEB...FAR NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061906Z - 062030Z

THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER SERN WY...WRN NEB...AND FAR NERN CO DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED EWD OUT OF SERN WY AND
INTO WRN NEB AT 19Z. LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS NOT YET BACKED TO ELY ALONG
THIS FRONT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DO SO BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER S/W TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
80S...RESULTING IN DECREASING CINH AND DEEPENING LINE OF CUMULUS.
THESE TRENDS SUPPORT SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG MUCH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AS STRONGER ASCENT WITH THE
WRN TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH 50S F DEWPOINTS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AXIS OF MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG INVOF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TOWARDS ELY BENEATH 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL SWLY/S...VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE /EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40-50 KT/ FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL/POSSIBLE
SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES...POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..GARNER.. 07/06/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41580639 42260586 42340363 42990183 42700006 41040152
40590405 40980611 41580639

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