SWODY1
SPC AC 311614
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL PNS TO
THE UPR MS VLY...
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH STRONG SYSTEM ROTATING NEWD ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH FROM NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE PLAINS IS LOSING
AMPLITUDE. WHILE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD ACROSS UPPER MS
VALLEY...THE TRAILING PORTION WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS SRN
MN INTO ERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AXIS OF HIGH PWAT AROUND 2 INCHES EXTENDS FROM MO NNEWD ACROSS IA
INTO WI WHERE CURRENT ELEVATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. AS FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THIS MOIST PLUME WITH STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES WILL CLIMB
RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM WRN IA SWWD INTO SERN
NEB/NRN KS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS PRIMARY WESTERLIES REMAIN GENERALLY N OF MOST FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MLCAPES
AOA 3000 J/KG STILL EXPECT A BROAD WINDOW FROM MID AFTERNOON UNTIL
EVENING WHEN INTENSE MULTICELL/ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR ONCE HEATING DISSIPATES THE CINH.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY SUPPORT A
FEW SUPERCELLS SERN NEB INTO IA THRU THE EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH A
BRIEF TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT.
...CNTRL HI PLNS LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT...
WEAK...MARGINALLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS ALONG THE NRN CO FRONT RANGE
AND/OR OVER THE ADJACENT HI PLNS BY EARLY EVE. AS STORMS
MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ALONG/N OF THE STALLING FRONT...HIGHLY
SHEARED/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ON SRN FRINGE OF THE WLYS MAY
YIELD A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.
..HALES/HURLBUT.. 08/31/2010
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