DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311719
SWODY2
SPC AC 311718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO WY LATE IN THE PERIOD FORCING A PRONOUNCED REGION OF
FOCUSED ASCENT TO OVERSPREAD THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN NEB WITHIN A
REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE
DOWNSTREAM TROPICAL PLUME FROM THE SRN PLAINS...NEWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL PLUME WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A REGION OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION/LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LATEST WV
IMAGERY SUGGESTS EVEN A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY EJECT NEWD ALONG
THIS PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTION AT
TIMES. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK.
THIS REGION COULD EXPERIENCE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. STRONG SFC HEATING
WILL ENSURE SFC PARCELS REACH THEIR LFC ALONG A SHARPENING N-S WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL SERVE TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 20Z.
WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES - HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR - FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE MORE COMMON WITH THESE STORMS THAN ACTIVITY
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS GIVEN THE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY...LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..DARROW.. 08/31/2010

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