SWODY2
SPC AC 260533
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2010
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. A WELL PRONOUNCED FRONTAL ZONE WILL
MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO NWRN WY BY PEAK HEATING ENABLING
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD THROUGH AZ/UT INTO THE
CNTRL ROCKIES. LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EASILY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS PLUME OF RICHER MOISTURE WHERE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL COINCIDE AHEAD OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. ADDITIONALLY...OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD ALSO ASSIST
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH THIS CONVECTION FOR MEANINGFUL
SEVERE PROBS.
FARTHER EAST...DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS FOCUS AS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO LIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE LA COAST. WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH
THIS FEATURE DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SUSTAINED MESOCYCLONES WITH ANY
UPDRAFTS...AND DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE
PARTICULARLY ROBUST DO TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SFC TEMPERATURES
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F. CONVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS MOST STORMS WILL BE
DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING.
..DARROW.. 08/26/2010
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